Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
