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A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or a cause of the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have stacked up.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.