Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
